Some of us are old enough to remember when Ohio was considered a legitimate swing state.
In the 2004 election, it was the tipping-point state, swinging the election to President Bush. In 2008, and again in 2012, President Obama carried the state in his bid for the White House. It wasn’t uncommon during that time for the state to send both a Democrat and Republican to represent them in the U.S. Senate and elect governors of both parties.
Then came 2016.
The working-class coalition that Democrats had built – one that had kept the largely rural state competitive for a generation – fell apart across the rust belt. A dip in Democratic turnout meant Hillary Clinton would lose the state by double the amount of her Democratic predecessors. It hasn’t returned since. While once thought of as a bellwether, Trump won the state in all three of his presidential campaigns. The state’s Democratic senator was ousted in 2024 and its gubernatorial races were double-digit Republican victories.
This year could be different.
Over the last decade, the Ohio Democratic Party has been quietly rebuilding. They have built a bench of bold leaders at the local level, revived their grassroots organizing, and focused on issues like lowering costs and making it easier for working families to thrive.
With Trump’s approval ratings at historic lows and the midterms serving as a referendum on the party in power, Buckeye state Democrats believe it’s their time for a comeback.
They’ve built a 2026 bench that is encouraging enthusiasm and closing polling gaps. Physician and former director of the state’s Department of Health Amy Acton is the party’s nominee for Governor. Born in Youngstown, she became “Ohio’s trusted face” during the response to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. In the special election for the U.S. Senate seat, Democrats have asked Senator Sherrod Brown to get back in the fight — elected three times before losing the most expensive Senate election of 2024. As the only Democratic name for a non-judicial statewide seat that’s won in 20 years, they feel good about this progressive champion’s chances. They’ve fielded bold, experienced candidates like Rep. Allison Russo for Secretary of State, Mayor Annette Blackwell for Auditor, and Judge Marilyn Zayas for the Ohio Supreme Court. Champions like Rep. Emilia Sykes and candidate Brian Poindexter are becoming prominent voices for a new generation of leadership at the federal level.
The Republicans are another story entirely.
Trump’s second-term policies are kicking Ohioans in the gut. Tariff policies and foreign wars are causing pain for local businesses and sending prices soaring at the grocery store and at the gas pump. Insane claims during the 2024 campaign about migrants “eating the dogs” in Springfield and the erosion of asylum protections are putting hardworking immigrant communities across the state at risk. His approval rating in the state hovers between 35 and 40 percent.
Despite that, Trump went to Vandalia this past weekend to campaign for his cast of endorsed candidates. Speaking for nearly a full hour, he ordered supporters to vote for his picks – “even if you hate them.”
They include Vivek Ramaswamy, a tech millionaire and one of Trump’s 2024 primary opponents – who many skeptics believe will use the seat as a stepping stone for a 2028 bid for the White House. Incumbent Jon Husted is running to finish the full term in the seat vacated by Trump’s Vice President, J.D. Vance, after being appointed in 2025 by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. In the Senate, he’s been a staunch Trump defender, including on the ongoing War in Iran and rolling back voting rights protections by authoring a bill to impose national voter ID.
Trump’s coming back to Ohio next week because polling is tight. A September Marist College poll put Acton up 6 points ahead of Ramaswamy for Governor. The same poll placed Brown 8 points ahead of Husted for the Senate.
In 2026, Democrats may begin to prove that while Republicans learned how to win Ohio, they have not governed to keep it. A 2026 resurgence could put Ohio back on the national electoral map for 2028 and beyond.
– Markus
🗓️In-Person Early Voting in Ohio begins TODAY, Tuesday, October 6th and ends Sunday, November 1st. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3rd. Make a plan to vote.
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Five Places / Races I’m Watching Closely this Week
We’re tracking over 100 key races and candidates that are essential to defending freedom, justice, and democracy at every level. Each week, I’ll share five that you should follow, too.
📍 CALIFORNIA
Voting underway in battle to lead state post-Newsom.
The nation’s most populous state will see the end to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s nearly three-decade climb to the top of California politics with a choice: Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) or Trump-endorsed news commentator / election denier Steve Hilton (R). Republicans haven’t won the Governor’s mansion in 20 years, but polling has tightened in recent weeks. Becerra, who also served as CA Attorney General and a long-time member of Congress, would make history as the state’s first Latino governor since 1875.
Mail-in ballots will begin arriving in mailboxes this week. In-person early voting sites open statewide on Saturday, October 31st.
📍 NEBRASKA 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
After a decade in the dark, a Latina organizer could reclaim state’s “Blue Dot,”
Despite voting for a Democrat for President in 2020 and 2024, Nebraska’s 2nd District shocked pundits by sending Republican Don Bacon to represent them in Congress the last five elections. The Omaha-area district is the bluest constituency represented by a Republican in Congress. With Bacon’s announced retirement, Democrats have put their faith in Denise Powell – a mom, small business owner, and co-founder of Women Who Run Nebraska – to reclaim the seat. After narrowly winning a competitive primary campaign, she’s focused on a working-class, anti-corruption agenda worthy of winning in November.
📍 PENNSYLVANIA
The midterms present an opportunity for Democrats to lay ground work for statewide success in 2028 and beyond.
Insanely positive polling for Gov. Josh Shapiro has kept his bid for a second term largely out of national headlines, but the discussion about Pennsylvania Democrats’ future is beginning. The most prominent figure is Shapiro’s running mate and second-in-command, 36-year-old Austin Davis. The first Black Pennsylvanian and youngest person in the nation currently serving as Lt. Governor has built an influential presence in the administration, especially on education and public safety. Swing-district Congressional candidates like Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-8) and Union Firefighter Bob Brooks (PA-7) would immediately change the pace in Washington and join a growing list of Democrats mentioned to challenge Sen. John Fetterman in the state’s 2028 Democratic primary.
📍 LOUISIANA
Close race for U.S. Senate seat affirms the need for greater investment in the South.
Statewide races in the South are continuing to challenge assumptions about the places and people worthy of Democratic investment. Jamie Davis, a third-generation Black farmer from Waterproof, is putting Louisiana Democrats within striking distance of capturing a U.S. Senate seat for the first time in over a decade. After carrying all 64 parishes in a competitive primary runoff, his “Louisiana First” platform, focused on lowering costs and making government work for working people, has attracted a broad coalition. A September Hart research poll put Davis within 4 points (44%/48%) of Julia Letlow, a Trump-endorsed Republican who ousted incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy in the May primary.
📍 BROWARD COUNTY, FLORIDA
The next-generation of local leaders are focused on the future.
The Republican monopoly of Florida’s statewide politics can sometimes distract from the intentional work Florida Democrats are doing to rebuild – starting by elevating leaders that embody the state’s future. In the state’s second-most populous county, organizers are seizing opportunities to act more boldly at the local level and set a model of resurgence statewide. In Coral Springs, a generational shift could be underway with 38-year-old City Commissioner Joshua Simmons vying to become the city’s first Black mayor. There is also a battle to shield county schools from Republican attack and disinvestment. Roberto Fernandez III – an Army vet and former Broward social studies teacher – is running to unseat incumbent Adam Cervera, a DeSantis appointee. With about 180,000 students, Broward is the second-biggest school district in Florida. According to NPR, the district has lost nearly 40,000 students in the last five years.
